Gold Price Forecast 2026: Why Timing Matters
This gold price forecast 2026 looks at ETF flows, central-bank buying, and U.S. mining costs.
Nothing can replace gold. It has been the world’s currency for thousands of years. Today, banks continue to buy bullion, despite record high prices and many economic and political issues.
Over the past year, I have openly posted my forecast prices for both gold and silver on LinkedIn. My outlook has been deadly accurate over the last sixteen months, which I have freely shared.
So today, I am releasing my forecast for 2026, as I believe investors, banks and industry cannot wait until December to see Standard & Poor’s economic analysis.
Prices cited are as of January 13, 2026.
ETF Inflows and Central-bank Buying
According to Goldhub, ETF inflows of gold in 2025 grew substantially, most notably in September and October. With record-high prices, do they know something the rest of us don’t?
Record Prices, Volatility, and Knock-on Costs
Gold and silver [futures] prices are at record highs. On January 13, gold was $4,600 and silver $88, with some fluctuations.
Still, how do you forecast against such a volatile backdrop?
At this pace, electronic component manufacturers are facing skyrocketing costs for precious metals that in turn will push consumer products such as cell phones, computers and televisions higher. All the while President Trump’s tariffs are causing a silo effect on commodities, which I believe is the root cause.
Yet I am a firm believer in the Trump Administration’s efforts to level the playing field. But this article isn’t about politics.
ETFs in North America now hold 2,095 tons of gold as of Dec 26, 2025. In late October 2020 ETFs held 2,100 tons of gold, its prior peak, which slowly fell until June 2024 to a low of 1,568 tons before rising steadily by nearly 25% to Dec 2025.
Meanwhile, central banks have continued buying. So has this hoarding caused the rise in price? No. But it sure helped. So let’s look at gold mining in the US by the numbers.
According to the World Gold Council, gold demand rose 5% year-over-year in the third quarter of 2025 to 1,313 tons. While this is an astounding amount, one can see the central banks and ETFs combined are not slowing their interest in stockpiling bullion. But for US miners this represents a completely different set of dynamics.
Nevada Miners Face a Fuel Squeeze
In California, Governor Newsom has pushed two key oil refineries out of the state – Phillips 66 (Los Angeles) and Valero (Benicia). In turn this is causing problems for gold-rich mining states like Nevada, that up until now, have relied upon California refineries to supply fuel.
The State of Nevada organized a committee to look into alternative resources but as it is state government, the odds are Nevada mining companies could be facing soaring fuel prices and this will dramatically affect their cost to mine, which I caution mining companies to consider finding alternatives themselves.
In my own company, Strong Mines, we looked at an alternative fuel, hydrogen. But there are no hydrogen refineries in northern Nevada though one was built in the Las Vegas area, and Volvo has developed [finally] a hydrogen semi tractor with a range of 400-600 miles.
But the cost of equipment is 300% more than conventional diesel fuel tractors and you would have to ship it north to where the mines are, at an additional cost.
Diesel fuel won out. But thanks to Newsom’s actions, this may change before the second half of 2026 when diesel costs in Nevada could double. This is a serious issue for mining companies here and it may dramatically affect growing production rates as a result.
AISC Outlook: Higher Costs, Steady Margins
All-in Sustaining Costs (AISC) in Nevada will rise from $1,450 per ounce to $1,850 by mid-2027, sooner if fuel costs skyrocket.
S&P reports that in 2024, the average AISC rose 7.85% in the US and 3.14% in Canada year over year, reaching US$1,716.15 and US$1,512.76, respectively.
S&P also forecasts from 2024 to 2027, margins are expected to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.41% in the US and 14.12% in Canada. Over the same period, the average AISC is forecast to decline at a CAGR of 4.52% in the US and 4.26% in Canada.
Boy, were they wrong. Based on the current price of gold ($4,600) the AISC is much higher, thus my forecast cost of $1,850 over $1,450. And if Nevada can’t resolve its fuel crisis, call it $2,000+.
This will have surprising effects on mining stocks with a strong base in Nevada, the world’s 6th largest gold producer. Sure, the price of gold will rise and this will offset skyrocketing costs to mine. But on an earnings level, even with $5,000 gold, margins will remain the same.
Price Targets for 2026 and Mid-2027
As to the price of gold itself. Look for gold to reach $5,000 by December and by mid-2027 look for something around $5,600.
Silver, though, is the wild card, having reached $90 already, we could see silver [futures] prices in those same time frames of $125 to $150.
Imagine what that will do to the cost of a new Roku TV or Apple Computer? Or cars?
| Forecast at a glance | |
|---|---|
| Gold | $5,000 by Dec 2026 (forecast) |
| Gold | ~$5,600 by mid-2027 (forecast) |
| Silver | $125–$150 by mid-2027 (forecast) |
Eric Stevenson is a registered economist and a top-ranked management analyst. He has been forecasting markets for over 50 years with great accuracy and was instrumental in taking over 84 companies public in that time frame.
