A new workforce risk analysis from The Mendoza Law Firm warns that intensified immigration enforcement and deportation activity could significantly destabilize key U.S. industries already struggling with labor shortages.
Between January and June 2025, the foreign-born population declined by nearly 2 million people, the first major drop since the 1960s. Recent enforcement surges have coincided with more than 1.2 million immigrants exiting the U.S. labor force between January and July 2025.
Policy analysts estimate that sustained aggressive deportation policies could shrink the U.S. workforce by as many as 6.8 million workers by 2028, and potentially 15.7 million by 2035.
High-Risk States
The five states with the highest deportation rates are:
Texas
Arizona
Louisiana
Georgia
Florida
These states also contain industries heavily reliant on immigrant labor, including agriculture, construction, hospitality, and transportation.
Industry-Level Vulnerability
The study categorizes industries by deportation sensitivity:
High Risk:
Construction, agriculture, transportation, and hospitality — sectors where 20–30% of workers are foreign-born and where labor shortages are already acute.
Medium Risk:
Manufacturing and professional/business services — industries dependent on immigrant participation but with more diversified hiring pipelines.
Lower Risk:
Public administration and financial activities — sectors with lower immigrant representation and stronger domestic labor pipelines.
Long-Term Economic Risks
Without sustained immigration, the U.S. faces:
Shrinking labor supply
Higher dependency ratios
Slower GDP growth
Rising consumer prices
Infrastructure delays
Food production instability
Immigrants have driven 70–75% of labor-force growth over the past decade. With Baby Boomers retiring at unprecedented rates, demographic math suggests that domestic workforce replacement alone cannot meet labor demand.
The report concludes that while immigration policy is multifaceted, its economic implications are immediate and measurable. Industries most reliant on immigrant labor are the same industries underpinning infrastructure, housing, food systems, logistics, and national competitiveness.
If current trends persist, the central question is no longer whether key sectors will feel the effects — but how quickly and how deeply.
